Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Natural Hazards, cilt.122, sa.6, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
This study aims to assess the liquefaction potential in five neighborhoods (Millet, Vatan, Yunusemre, Duaçınarı, and Kazımkarabekir) in the Yıldırım district of Bursa province and to produce GIS-based liquefaction hazard maps. The analyses are carried out based on the Turkish Building Earthquake Code (Turkish Building Earthquake Code, 2018) for a design earthquake scenario with a magnitude of Mw = 7.5 and a return period of 475 years. Standard Penetration Test (SPT) data and laboratory test results obtained from 123 boreholes are used in this study. Evaluations are performed for two different groundwater level conditions: the current level and the most unfavorable level (where groundwater is assumed to reach the surface). The results are spatially interpreted in ArcGIS using IDW interpolation. The findings indicate that the risk of liquefaction is low under current conditions, particularly in southern regions. However, it is revealed that the risk increases significantly in all regions if groundwater rises to the surface. Error analyses are also conducted in the study, comparing the mean error, RMSE, and relative error values using different numbers of boreholes. Accordingly, the effect of borehole distribution on the results is investigated using an epistemic uncertainty approach, revealing that more homogeneous distributions and data densities around 100 boreholes provide relatively more reliable results. These findings reveal that liquefaction risk analyses must consider not only the variability in the groundwater level but also the uncertainties associated with data density and distribution. They also demonstrate that the maps obtained can serve as an important decision support tool in urban planning and disaster risk reduction efforts.