Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
LANDSLIDES, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
On 8 December 2024, a fatal debris avalanche occurred on the Gungoren hillslope in Artvin, northeastern Turkiye, the second deadly landslide on this anthropogenically modified slope since 3 April 2006. We integrate multi-source remote sensing and field observations to reconstruct pre-failure behavior, explore the roles of predisposing factors and short-term controls, and identify sectors susceptible to future failure. Historical 0.3 m MAXAR imagery, a post-event LiDAR DEM (9 December 2024), UAV-derived orthophoto and DSM, and Sentinel-1 InSAR time series from 2022 to 2024 support detailed geomorphic mapping and kinematic analysis. The hillslope exhibited persistent slow motion prior to failure, with mean annual line-of-sight velocities up to similar to 60 mm/year within and adjacent to the source area. The precipitation records show that the same slope experienced heavier daily totals in the last two years (e.g., similar to 150 mm and similar to 120 mm) without any failures, whereas the 8 December 2024 avalanche followed days with < 80 mm/day. We therefore interpret antecedent rainfall and internal hydrologic state during a moderately wet period as the proximate trigger, acting on a slope that had been progressively weakened over years to decades. Long-term anthropogenic modification from highway and quarry works, together with the earlier 2006 fatal landslide, indicates chronic susceptibility and is considered an important predisposing factor. An Mw 4.7 earthquake on 15 November 2024, similar to 45 km from the site, produced low estimated ground motions (median PGA approximate to 0.006 g) and is best interpreted as a secondary predisposing factor that may have promoted crack growth and subtle hydrologic perturbations in an already conditioned slope, rather than as a stand-alone trigger. By combining InSAR, Red Relief Image Map analysis, and field mapping, we delineate three high-susceptibility sectors that warrant targeted monitoring and stabilization. This case illustrates how antecedent rainfall can govern failure timing in a humid, heavily modified setting where modest earthquake shaking and anthropogenic disturbance contribute to progressive slope weakening and residual hazard.