The Total Electricity Energy Production of the World, European Union, and Turkey: Projections and Comparison

AKPINAR A., TAVŞAN F., Komurcu M. I., Filiz M. H., KAYGUSUZ K.

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, vol.7, no.1, pp.28-44, 2012 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


This study aims to forecast the world's, European Union's (EU), and Turkey's electricity energy generation until 2030. For this purpose, the electricity energy sector of the world, EU, and Turkey was overviewed from past to present. The total electricity energy generation for the world, EU, and Turkey were then modelled by using historical energy generation data as years with regression analysis. Data from 1970 to 2004 for Turkey and data from 1980 to 2004 for the world and EU were used for the projections. Electricity energy productions have been forecasted up to year 2030. According to the results, it is determined that cubic (R-2 = 0.997) and linear (R-2 = 0.993) models for projection of the world's and EU's electricity energy generation, respectively, is fitness while the quadratic (R-2 = 0.996) model fits for the projection of Turkey's total electricity energy generation and Turkey will have 0.995% of the world's electricity energy generation in 2030, while the EU will have 8.41% within the world's electricity energy generation in 2030 if the current trend continues.