Motivating Green Transition: Analyzing Fuel Demands in Turkiye Amidst the Climate Crisis and Economic Impact

Çoruh E., Yıldız M. S., Urak F., Bilgiç A., Cengiz V.

SUSTAINABILITY, cilt.17, sa.4851, ss.1-31, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 17 Sayı: 4851
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/su17114851
  • Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABILITY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, INSPEC, Metadex, Veterinary Science Database, Directory of Open Access Journals, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-31
  • Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Decarbonizing the transportation sector is critical for sustainable development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing countries like Turkiye. This study analyzes fuel demand elasticities for diesel, gasoline, and LPG across 12 NUTS-1 regions of Turkiye in 2022, using a panel random effects SUR approach. The model accounts for regional variation and fuel interactions, producing robust estimates that uncover significant spatial and temporal dif ferences in consumption patterns. Uniquely, diesel demand displays a significantly positive price elasticity, challenging the conventional assumption of inelasticity. Gasoline demand is moderately price-sensitive, while LPG appears relatively unresponsive. Strong cross-price elasticities—especially between diesel and gasoline—point to substitution effects that can inform more adaptive policy frameworks. Seasonal fluctuations and Istanbul’s outsized Academic Editors: Wenbo Li, Shanyong Wang, Xiu Cheng and Jun Li Received: 19 April 2025 Revised: 17 May 2025 Accepted: 20 May 2025 Published: 25 May 2025 Citation: Coruh, E.; Yıldız, M.S.; Urak, F.; Bilgic, A.; Cengiz, V. Motivating Green Transition: Analyzing Fuel Demands in Turkiye Amidst the Climate Crisis and Economic Impact. Sustainability 2025, 17, 4851. https://doi.org/10.3390/ su17114851 Copyright: © 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/ licenses/by/4.0/). impact also shape national trends. These findings underscore the need for differentiated region- and fuel-specific strategies. While higher gasoline taxes may effectively reduce demand, lowering diesel and LPG use will require complementary measures such as infras tructure upgrades, behavioral incentives, and accelerated adoption of alternative fuels. The study advocates for regionally adjusted carbon pricing, removal of implicit subsidies, and targeted support for electric and hybrid vehicles. Aligning fiscal tools with actual demand behavior can enhance both the efficiency and equity of the transition to a low-carbon transportation system.