Beyond Linearity: Exchange Rate Asymmetries and the Trade Balance in Türkiye
SAGE Open, cilt.16, sa.3, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 16 Sayı: 3
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1177/21582440261485510
- Dergi Adı: SAGE Open
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, EBSCO Education Source, Education Abstracts, ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Directory of Open Access Journals, Academic Search Ultimate (EBSCO), Social Science Premium Collection (ProQuest), Education Source Ultimate (EBSCO)
- Anahtar Kelimeler: asymmetric response, panel nonlinear ARDL, real exchange rate, trade balance, Türkiye’s bilateral trade
- Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
This study examines the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate changes on Türkiye’s trade balance with its main trading partners—the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany—over the period 2002: Q1–2024: Q4. Using quarterly panel data and the Panel Nonlinear ARDL (P-NARDL) approach, the analysis captures both short- and long-run asymmetries between real exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. The results show that the response of the trade balance to real exchange rate movements is asymmetric and varies widely across industries and partners. Rather than improving the balance everywhere, a depreciation helps only a limited set of industries and worsens it in many that depend on imported inputs, and the dominant channel differs by partner: the depreciation component for the United States, the appreciation component for the United Kingdom, and income for Germany.