Innovative approaches to the trend assessment of streamflows in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey

Akcay F., KANKAL M., San M.

HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES, cilt.67, sa.2, ss.222-247, 2022 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 67 Sayı: 2
  • Basım Tarihi: 2022
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/02626667.2021.1998509
  • Dergi Adı: HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, IBZ Online, PASCAL, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), CAB Abstracts, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC, Pollution Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.222-247
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: S, Archfield, K, Ryberg, trend analysis, innovative trend significance test, innovative polygon trend analysis, Mann-Kendall test, CLIMATE-CHANGE, WATER-RESOURCES, TIME-SERIES, LOW FLOWS, PRECIPITATION, RIVER, TEMPERATURE, VARIABILITY, HOMOGENEITY, MAXIMUM
  • Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The issue of detection of hydrometeorological trends remains relevant because of the importance of climate change in design, operation, and management studies related to water resources. This study examines the effects of changes in climate and land use on monthly flows (1962-2018) in the Eastern Black Sea basin, Turkey, using innovative trend analysis methods. In this context, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA) and innovative trend significance test (ITST) were used to detect the trends and compared with Mann-Kendall test. Only stations with homogeneous data that did not experience non-climatic changes are used in the analysis. IPTA and ITST approaches are much more sensitive than Mann-Kendall in detecting trends. Although the innovative methods are mostly compatible with each other (90%), IPTA presents additional information about trend transitions between successive parts of time series. Results indicate significant decreasing trends in summer months, likely due to diminishing precipitation and effective evaporation.