Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
TARIM, ORMAN VE SU BİLİMLERİNDE TREND AKADEMİK ÇALIŞMALAR, YARPUZ BOZDOĞAN NİGAR, Editör, All Science Academy, Konya, ss.73-85, 2025
Cereal production is vital to Tanzania's agricultural sector, contributing significantly to food security and poverty alleviation, particularly in rural areas where agriculture is the primary income source. This study seeks to analyze the relationship between cereal production and its determinants, which include the area of land used for cereal production (hectares), rural population (in millions), precipitation (in mm), and agricultural export value (in thousands of USD). The analysis will utilize a dataset spanning from 1975 to 2021. The study utilized an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to examine the long-term and short-term relationships between cereal production and its various influencing factors. The results confirm the existence of both short-run and long-run relationships among these variables. In the long term, the rural population and the amount of land dedicated to cereal production positively impact overall cereal output, suggesting that both land expansion and the availability of labor are beneficial. Additionally, precipitation plays a significant role, positively affecting cereal production, indicating that increased rainfall results in higher cereal yields. Although exports have a marginal influence on production, they suggest that a substantial portion of cereal output is consumed domestically. The study highlights the importance of sustainable land use, resilience to climate change, and investment in rural agricultural development to increase cereal production. The findings carry important policy implications for improving food security and fostering economic development in Tanzania and other similar agricultural economies.