Analysis of Variables Affecting Municipal Borrowing with Quantile Regression in Turkey


Serbes H., Aydemir Dev M., Çetinkaya Ö., Bayram Arlı N.

EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW, vol.22, no.2, pp.139-154, 2022 (ESCI) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 22 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.21121/eab.857078
  • Journal Name: EGE ACADEMIC REVIEW
  • Journal Indexes: Emerging Sources Citation Index (ESCI)
  • Page Numbers: pp.139-154
  • Keywords: Municipality, Borrowing, Fiscal Determinants, Qua ntile Regression, Turkey, FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION
  • Bursa Uludag University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

The present study aimed to determine the variables that affect municipal borrowing in Turkey and analyze them using the quantile regression. In this analysis, municipal debt was analyzed for five quantiles (10th, 25th, 50th, 75th ve 90th), and it was observed that various variables explained the debt in different quantiles. Some variables are significant in all quantiles and could explain the municipal debt, while certain variables were not significant in various quantiles. The findings show that per capita budget expenditure has a significant and positively correlated per capita municipal debt in all five quantiles; expenditure commitment rate in four, and non-interest fiscal capacity rate in the first two quantiles. Per capita tax revenue variable was also significant and negatively correlated with per capita municipal debt in all five borrowing groups. However, population and per capita capital expenditure variables were found insignificant in almost five quantiles. The present study demonstrated that the proposals and policies developed on the municipal debt could have different determinants for municipalities with varying levels of debt.