Comparative Modelling of the Rainfall Runoff Pattern of the Solöz River using the WEAP Model within the Framework of Climate Change Scenarios

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Güney B. S., Örüç F.

, 4th Global Summit on ADVANCES IN EARTH SCIENCE, Berlin, Almanya, 29 - 30 Eylül 2025, ss.54, (Özet Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Özet Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Berlin
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Almanya
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.54
  • Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Today, water is not only vital for human life and health and ecosystems, but also a basic necessity for the development of countries. Water scarcity is becoming an increasingly prominent and widespread problem. WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) is a flexible, integrated, and transparent planning tool created in 1988 to assess the sustainability of current water demand and supply dynamics and evaluate alternative scenarios over long periods. It is a programme based on an integrated approach to water resources planning. Recent studies indicate that Turkey is one of the most vulnerable countries in the Mediterranean region, facing severe warming and drought. In this study, climate projections for the Solöz River, which feeds the Iznik Lake basin in Turkey, a climate change hotspot, were modelled using WEAP and CMIP6. The model results were projected up to 2100, and the results for the medium, short and long term were interpreted. The model results were statistically analysed in comparison with the observed results. Simulation results, which best simulated precipitation by considering HadGEM3-GC31-MM values, were examined based on NSE, PBIAS, and R2 values. Future projection anomalies include short-term (2030-2050), medium-term (2050-2070), and long-term (2070-2100) periods, based on the IPCC assessment report (AR6) reference year 1995-2014. The aim of the study is to observe how the net water budget in the Solöz River Basin changes when the climate change scenario is taken into account, and to understand what changes will occur in a stream feeding the lake basin when the climate change scenario that has been found to give the best results for Turkey is projected using the Weap model. While establishing the logical framework, the focus was on examining the extent to which the climate change scenario was accurately projected by comparing the statistical results obtained between 1995 and 2002 with the statistical results of the 2100 projection, supported by statistical analysis.