Brain drain-economic growth nexus: rethinking growth challenges in emerging countries

This study examines the impact of brain drain on economic growth in emerging countries, using Türkiye as a representative case. It aims to identify whether skilled emigration constrains or supports long-run growth and to provide policy-relevant evidence for economies facing persistent high-skill outflows.

The analysis uses annual data for Türkiye covering the period 1990–2023. Based on a Cobb–Douglas production framework, real gross domestic product (GDP) level is modelled as a function of brain drain, gross fixed capital formation, labour force and total factor productivity. The empirical strategy employs the Lee–Strazicich unit root test, Maki cointegration test with multiple endogenous structural breaks and fully modified ordinary least squares long-run estimation. Bayer–Hanck cointegration and Toda–Yamamoto causality tests are used for robustness.

The findings show that brain drain has a statistically significant negative effect on real GDP in Türkiye in the long run. By contrast, gross fixed capital formation, labour force and total factor productivity contribute positively to real output level, in line with theoretical expectations. Robustness results confirm the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables and indicate one-way causality running from brain drain and total factor productivity to real GDP.

The study contributes to the literature by providing country-specific time-series evidence for Türkiye within an explicit growth framework. It also employs a more direct measure of brain drain based on the number of associate and bachelor's degree graduates emigrating from Türkiye, rather than relying on indirect proxies such as net migration or international student mobility. In doing so, the study offers policy implications that may also be relevant for other emerging economies facing similar challenges.