This study investigates the relationship between brain drain and human capital in Turkey from 1984 to 2022. It aims to identify the macroeconomic and institutional factors influencing skilled labour migration and assess their impact on human capital. The study offers policy recommendations to mitigate brain drain based on the findings.

The study employs the Bai and Perron method to analyse the relationship between brain drain and human capital in Turkey, focusing on economic and institutional factors using annual data from 1984 to 2022. The model estimates structural breaks to capture the time-varying effects of these factors.

The model estimation reveals significant structural breaks in 1994 and 2006. Notably, the increase in human capital from 2006 to 2022 was associated with a rise in brain drain. The findings indicate that macroeconomic factors are the most critical determinants of brain drain, with institutional factors also exerting a significant impact across all sub-periods.

This study represents a pioneering effort in Turkey, offering the first comprehensive analysis of the relationship between brain drain and human capital. Integrating econometric methodology with macroeconomic and institutional factors provides a novel and holistic framework for understanding this critical issue. The study provides strategic recommendations for policymakers to preserve Turkey’s human capital and prevent brain drain.