Using degree-day and nonlinear regression models to predict seasonal flights of Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Roslerstamm, 1834) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in plum orchards

Pehlevan B., Kovancı O. B.

TURKIYE ENTOMOLOJI DERGISI-TURKISH JOURNAL OF ENTOMOLOGY, vol.41, pp.75-86, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 41
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.16970/ted.87203
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.75-86
  • Keywords: Adoxophyes orana, logistic model, nonlinear regression, Richards' function, summer fruit tortrix moth, LEP.
  • Bursa Uludag University Affiliated: Yes


Adoxophyes orana (Fischer von Roslerstamm, 1834) is a major pest of pome and stone fruits in Europe and Asia. This study reports the first record of A. orana in plum orchards in Turkey. Moth flight activity was monitored using pheromone traps in Bursa during 2011 to 2013. Also, cumulative degree-days (DD) were calculated to predict moth emergence time and flight peaks in plum orchards. Adoxophyes orana had three flight peaks. Depending on the year, the first, second and third flight of moths began between 2-25 May, 20 June-13 July, and 7 August-14 September, respectively. Emergence dates of each flight coincided with 325-391, 957-1065 and 1797-1943 DD in the same order. Richards' function and logistic regression models were applied to forecast seasonal flights of this pest. The 50% moth emergence of the first, second and third flight of A. orana was predicted at 606, 1407 and 2169 DD using the Richards' function, and 636, 1427 and 2341 DD using the logistic model as compared with observed values at 626, 1393 and 2110 DD, respectively. Previously developed forecasting models may help apply timely control and thus reducing the number of pesticide applications in plum orchards.