Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
12th Global Conference on Global Warming (GCGW-2024), Şanlıurfa, Türkiye, 16 - 19 Mayıs 2024, ss.289-292, (Tam Metin Bildiri)
In recent years, there has been a
significant increase in the installed capacity of wind and solar energy from renewable
energy sources in Türkiye, while simultaneously, the production of traditional
energy resources such as natural gas and coal has decreased. Hydrogen is
considered the future fuel, and its production is expected to increase rapidly
in Türkiye in the coming years, in parallel with the development of hydrogen
energy production in the world and solar and wind energy. In this study, future
consumption forecasts for hydrogen energy in Türkiye are made using four
different regression models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive extra (ARX), moving
average (MA), autoregressive moving average (ARMA) based on the world’s
renewable energy production amounts. Thus, both the efficiency of the
regression models used are analyzed, and what should be done in the future for
hydrogen energy in Türkiye is tried to be revealed scientifically and
economically. As a result, among the four analysis models used, the ARMA model
reached the highest accuracy value of 95.8% in the 8th degree for short-term
forecasting, and the AR model made the most stable for long-term forecasting.